Donnerstag, 20. Februar 2014

Why Vinny has to go

When the Winter Olympics come to a close and the NHL starts back up, there will only be a couple of games left before the Trade deadline and thus it is time for a lot of teams to evaluate their current positions and expectations. Are they buyers or sellers? Should they make some changes? Are there any holes to fill and are there people available for a reasonable price to do so?

For the Philadelphia Flyers this will be a bit of a conundrum, as they have a definitive and glaring need (a #1 defenseman), but few sellers in that category. To make matters worse, it seems like the player they would do best to trade away was a recent signing that just doesn't seem to fit in: Vincent Lecavalier.

Now I'll be the first to admit that I was rather happy with the Lecavalier signing. I thought last year the Flyers lacked a veteran presence among the forwards who could guide some of the younger players. I would have preferred a wing, but Lecavalier was in my opinion the best forward available, could provide some leadership, give the Flyers some depth in case of injury, and should also improve the Flyers horrendous face-off percentage from last year (Giroux was excellent at 56.9%, but the player with the best percentage after that took at least 100 draws was Maxime Talbot at a measely 47.9%, with Couturier, Schenn, Briere, and Fedotenko being even worse. This lead to Giroux taking the most face-offs in the entire league. Meanwhile Lecavalier won 54.5% of his faceoffs last year). Even price point seemed pretty reasonable at $4.5 million a year, though I would have liked somewhat less than 5 years and the NMC seemed annoying.

The problem is, that it didn't quite work out as it seemed. The plan was definitely for Lecavalier to be placed at 2nd line center, and permanently convert Brayden Schenn to wing. However, the Flyers had an absolutely horrible time at finding chemistry early in the season. Various lines involving Lecavalier showed promise, but even they couldn't break the Flyers out of their team-wide scoring slump and the line-juggling continued until the injury bug struck and took out Lecavalier himself for a total of 13 games so far.

In the meantime, two changes to the line-up seemed to bring some life into the team. First Maxime Talbot was traded to Colorado in exchange for Steven Downie, giving the team an actually competent 3rd line winger. Then when Lecavalier suffered a non-displaced fracture in the back, Michael Raffl was recalled and showed some promise after being placed on a line with Giroux and Voracek.

And then suddenly the Flyers had some balance in their roster. They had a finesse-scoring line lead by Claude Giroux. They had a grinding scoring line dominating the boards with Hartnell, Schenn and Simmonds. They had a shutdown line frustrating the opponents with Downie, Couturier and Read. And they had an energy line of Rosehill, Hall, and Rinaldo, getting limited ice time. While the individual lines got hot on separate occasions, they all had a defined and complementary purpose.

When Lecavalier eventually returned, the Flyers had a problem in finding a spot for him, reluctantly placing him as a wing with Couturier. Lecavalier himself is rather ill-equipped to handle this role, being a negative possession player and being woefully inept at playing wing, a fact he himself admits in an episode of the Flyers web documentary series Flight Plan. The odd man out on this scenario was Steve Downie, who would get placed on the 4th line or scratched altogether for BS reasons such as "lacking intensity".

Before the Flyers went on a 5-out-of-6 run ahead of the Olympic Break, they had some struggles, leading to further line-mixing in order to get things going, leading to the following lines:

Hartnell - Giroux - Voracek
Lecavalier - Schenn - Simmonds
Downie - Couturier - Read
Raffl - Hall - Rinaldo

Now this line-up isn't all bad, and giving the Flyers a very competent 4th line (which has also been a weak point throughout the year, though the contribution of Hall on the PK and in the face-off circle can't be understated), but Lecavalier is still placed on a position he can't succeed, and his stats show it. Bouncing around the line-up Lecavalier has only collected 23 points in 46 games this year. His only valuable contribution at the moment is that he gives a powerful threat on the 2nd power-play unit, as seen in his 7 power-play goals and 11 points on the man-advantage, but that only emphasizes his lack of production at even strength.

Now this isn't entirely Lecavaliers own fault. It is hard to find your role in the line-up when injuries strike and your line-mates change so often. However, it also shows that Lecavalier is the odd-man out as the Flyers are actively searching for a spot for him as no natural integration into the line-up is taking place.

Lecavalier is the solution to a problem that the Flyers don't have, namely a 2nd line Center. Thus it leads to the natural course of action the Flyers should undertake: Trade Vincent Lecavalier. Ideally for a defenseman and/or a left wing.

Now this could be a messy divorce as Lecavalier decided somewhat quickly on Philadelphia, partially because his wife reportedly loved the city after visiting it and asking him to leave again so quickly could leave a bad taste. The bigger problem is that Vincent Lecavalier's contract has a No Movement Clause. This doesn't mean that Lecavalier can't be traded, only that he has to approve a trade. Considering that he is most definitely not oblivious to the fact of his changing linemates and scoring trouble, it shouldn't be too hard to convince him that he would do better playing for a different team that could actually accommodate him.

The other problem is finding a suitable buyer who can offer an appropriate return. While Lecavalier's trade value is definitely down after this season, he should have enough name recognition and promise left to get at least a decent offer. A defenseman is a top priority here because despite some good prospects like Gostisbehere, Hagg and Morin in the pipeline, the Flyers have an immediate need on the blue line. Another thing that would need be addressed is replacing Lecavalier's production, limited as it may be.


The Flyers could also gamble and retain Lecavalier. During the Olympic break he would have had some time to heal from the injuries he suffered earlier in the season (and quite clearly returned to early from) and the team would have to hope that he would finally acclimate to a position as a wing. Another road to go down could be trading the Schenn brothers, but considering what the team has given up to acquire the two I think Paul Holmgren would be loath to do that.

The madman solution for the problem of finding a spot for Vinny is placing him at first line center and moving Giroux to wing. Giroux has played wing before and Vinny is definitely a natural center. However, Giroux is the top line center on this team and there is no reason to move him out of that position and disrupting the Flyers current best line.

To make a long story short, Vincent Lecavalier is a player that simply doesn't have a role in this line-up and seems incapable of adapting to a different role than a scoring center. I would definitely not be surprised if he was gone at the trade deadline.

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